Allstate’s May catastrophe load takes YTD losses to $2.62bn

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Large US primary insurer Allstate has reported estimated catastrophe losses of $1.4 billion ($1.1bn after-tax) for the month of May, taking total catastrophe losses for May year-to-date to $2.62 billion.

Allstate logoAt $1.4 billion, May 2024 catastrophe losses are up by $515 million, or 58% from the $885 million of May 2023 cat losses reported by Allstate.

The primary insurer notes that cat losses included 14 events estimated at $1.48 billion ( which suggests some prior period loss improvement), with approximately 70% of the losses related to five wind and hail events, primarily in Texas, Colorado, and Illinois.

For April 2024, Allstate reported cat losses of $494 million, which combined with May’s total takes cat losses for the two months to $1.89 billion. This is up on the same period last year, when Allstate recorded April and May cat losses of almost $1.7 billion.

From the start of January to the end of May 2024, Allstate has recorded pre-tax cat losses of $2.62 billion. In comparison, from January 1st to May 31st, 2023, the insurer’s cat losses totalled roughly $3.4 billion, driven by a higher Q1 2023 cat load of $1.69 billion, compared with $731 million of losses in Q1 2024.

Analysts at BMO Capital Markets reported recently that Allstate’s second-quarter 2024 cat losses could reach $2.65 billion, forecasting that around $2.15 billion of this would be made up of May and June losses.

With May cat losses of $1.4 billion, June monthly losses would need to be $750 million to get to the $2.15 billion, which would be a decline from the $1.01 billion of cat losses seen in June 2023. $750 million of June 2024 losses would also take the Q2 2024 total to around the $2.65 billion noted by analysts, which would be in line with the $2.7 billion recorded in Q2 2023.

For 2024, Allstate raised the top of its Nationwide excess catastrophe reinsurance tower for 2024 to just over $7.9 billion, with a retention of $500 million.

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