Analysts at JP Morgan have estimated Q4 global catastrophe insured losses of less than $10 billion.
The analysts attribute this largely to two large natural catastrophes in North America, Hurricane Nicole in November and Winter Storm Elliott in December.
P&C insurance company, The Hanover, recently reported estimated catastrophe losses of $190 million for the Q4 of 2022, of which $165 million, or 87%, were driven by Elliott.
Meanwhile, US primary insurer Allstate reported a preliminary net loss for the fourth quarter of 2022, as costs from Winter Storm Elliott contributed to an overall catastrophe loss of $779 million for the Q4 period, pre-tax.
Catastrophe losses for December alone amount to $593 million, Allstate reported, with Elliott accounting for approximately 80% or $478 million of losses in this period.
Intact Financial Corporation, a Toronto-based property and casualty (P&C) insurer, posted estimated catastrophe losses for Q4 2022 of approximately $143 million, pre-tax.
Compared to 3Q 2022, where losses due to Hurricane Ian along with other large nat cats, 4Q 2022 indicated a relatively benign quarter, JP Morgan’s analysts say. the firm’s $7bn estimate is also lower versus the average losses in 4Q during 2017-2021.
JP Morgan’s total natural catastrophe insured losses estimates for 2022 now stand at $120bn, in line with recent estimates from Munich Re.
The firm suggests that now, 2022 will go down as expensive as 2021 in terms of insurance losses and the fourth costliest year of all time.
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