Moody’s RMS has released a report estimating that insured losses from Windstorm Ciarán, will likely fall between €0.9 billion and €1.5 billion.
Windstorm Ciarán (also named Emir by the Free University of Berlin), struck Western Europe on November 1-2.
According to Moody’s RMS, France accounts for the majority of the loss estimate, though the storm also affected Belgium, the United Kingdom, the Channel Islands, the Netherlands, and Germany.
“This loss estimate is based on wind hazard reconstructions using the recently released Moody’s RMS Europe Windstorm HD Models, and includes damage to property, automobiles, agriculture, and direct business interruption, but excludes losses arising from infrastructure damage, which are not expected to be material,” the firm explained.
Moody’s RMS noted that the loss estimates also consider minor impacts from non-modelled sources of loss such as coastal and inland flooding, and damage to forestry, ports, and watercraft. Meanwhile, post-event loss amplification due to material and labour shortages, is expected to be minor.
The firm added that damages from Storm Domingos, named by Spain’s state meteorological agency AEMET that impacted Central-West France in the days following Ciarán, are not included in the estimate.
Giovanni Leoncini, Senior Product Manager for Europe Windstorm Models at Moody’s RMS, commented, “Windstorm Ciaràn can be thought of as a weaker sibling of 87J, the Great Storm of 1987, which severely affected the United Kingdom and Northwest France in October 1987.
“Even with lower gust speeds and a more limited extent compared to 87J, losses will still be significant for France.
“Despite the recent period of windstorm activity, the destruction now brought by Ciaràn reminds us of the importance of extratropical cyclones for the (re)insurance industry.”
This compares to Verisk’s industry loss estimate for Winter Storm Ciarán between €800 million and €1.3 billion.
Verisk also observed that the majority of losses are expected in France, though its modelled insured loss estimates do not include losses due to coastal or inland flooding, tornadoes or hail, uninsured properties, demand surge or losses to infrastructure.
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