PERILS raises Nanmadol estimate, but losses considered “benign”

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Catastrophe loss aggregator PERILS has released a second industry loss estimate for Typhoon Nanmadol, raising its initial insured loss figure from JPY 114 billion (USD 860 million) to JPY 120 billion (USD 910 million).

typhoon-nanmadol-2022At this level, PERILS analysts said their estimate confirms the “manageable” nature of the event, and they expect re/insurers to welcome the “comparatively benign” loss.

Typhoon Nanmadol affected the islands of Kyushu and Shikoku in southern Japan and the western and central regions of Japan’s main island of Honshu from 18th to 20th September 2022, becoming the 14th named storm in the 2022 Western North Pacific typhoon season.

It made landfall on 18th September near the city of Kagoshima on southern Kyushu Island and brought strong winds and extreme rainfall leading to flooding and landslides.

However, the typhoon’s track traversed an area of lower value asset concentration compared to previous major typhoons, such as Faxai and Hagibis in 2019 or Trami and Jebi in 2018, and resulted in a lower level of losses than had been feared.

Additionally, PERILS notes that the southern islands of Japan are frequently exposed to extreme weather and accordingly have a very high level of preparedness to mitigate the impact of such events

“Our second loss report for Typhoon Nanmadol is based on a fresh round of data collection from the majority of the Japan non-life insurance market,” explained Lukas Wissler, Product Manager at PERILS.

“It confirms the manageable loss level of the event, which was already indicated in our first loss report,” he added. “Given the current challenges in the global Cat capacity markets, the confirmation of the moderate losses stemming from Typhoon Nanmadol will likely be welcome news.”

Dalida Bachmann, Head of Client Relationship at PERILS, also commented: “Since the foundation of PERILS in 2009, we have facilitated USD 21.3bn in risk capital by acting as a trusted and reliable reporting agency for industry-loss-based risk transfer products. With the inclusion of Wind/Flood Japan in our market coverage in June this year, these hedging instruments can now also be used for tropical cyclone exposures in Japan.”

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