Verisk pegs insured losses from southern Germany flooding at up to $3.9bn

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Verisk’s Extreme Event Solutions business, a global provider of data analytics and technology, has estimated that insurance industry losses from recent flooding in southern Germany will fall between USD 2.6 billion and USD 3.9 billion (EUR 2.4 billion to EUR 3.6 billion).

Between May 31st and June 3rd, up to 160 liters of rain fell per square meter across parts of southern Germany, leading to flooding along parts of the upper Danube River and several of its southern tributaries.

The worst impacts from the event were felt in Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg, where flooding submerged streets, highways, homes, and businesses. A dam on the Paar River broke in two places in the Bavarian district of Pfaffenhofen an der Ilm, and a dyke and a dam also broke in Diedorf.

Additionally, in Bavaria, the Schmutter, Cham, Paar, Ilm, Danube, and Isar Rivers all reached above the level 4 (highest) warning levels in numerous locations.

The damage from the floods in southern Germany is expected to drive significant total economic losses, and Verisk expects a relatively high proportion of the overall loss to be insured, given the high penetration of flood insurance in the region.

As reported previously by the German Insurance Association (GDV), almost 50% of all structures in Bavaria are insured for the flood peril, while in Baden-Württemberg that figure exceeds 90%, as flood protection was a compulsory part of property insurance in that state until 1994.

Verisk’s Extreme Event Solutions’ up to USD 3.9 billion insured loss estimate for this event includes insured physical damage to property – residential, commercial, industrial, auto, agriculture – both structures and their contents, from both on-and off-floodplain flooding. It also includes additional living expenses for residential claims and business interruption for commercial claims.

However, the estimate does not include losses outside of Germany, losses to uninsured properties or to infrastructure, losses from extra-contractual obligations, losses from hazardous waste cleanup, vandalism, or civil commotion, whether directly or indirectly caused by the event, demand surge, or other non-modeled losses.

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