Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Sep 06 2023
000 WTPZ41 KNHC 061443 TCDEP1 Hurricane Jova Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023 900 AM MDT Wed Sep 06 2023 Jova continues to rapidly intensify this morning. Infrared satellite imagery shows deep convection, with very cold cloud tops over the central core of the system. A SSMIS microwave pass at 1129Z revealed a well-defined core with a closed mid-level eye, and a low-level eye vertically aligned with the mid-level center. Hi-resolution 1-minute GOES visible imagery is also showing signs of an eye. A blend of the Dvorak subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and UW-CIMMS are between 85 to 90 kt. Given the structure depicted on microwave imagery, will lean towards the higher end of these estimates with the initial intensity for this advisory set to 90 kt. Environmental conditions continue to be conducive for rapid intensification, with low vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures along the forecast track. Statistical models continue to show extremely high probabilities of further rapid intensification. DTOPS and SHIPS guidance are both extremely high and well above the climatological mean during the next 12 to 24 hours. The peak intensity has been raised to 125 kt in about 36 h. Given the conducive environment, the NHC intensity forecast continues to favor the stronger model guidance with continued rapid intensification. The intensity forecast lies above the consensus aids and regional hurricane models. In about 3 days, Jova is forecast to cross over much cooler SSTs and encounter some drier mid-level air, which should induce weakening. Jova is moving west-northwestward at 11 kt. The track forecast is fairly straightforward. Jova is moving along the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over northern Mexico. The hurricane is expected to continue moving west-northwestward as it rounds the southwestern edge of the high through the forecast period. The latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory, except for a slightly faster forward speed. The updated forecast track lies near the corrected consensus aid. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 14.2N 110.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 14.9N 112.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 15.7N 115.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 16.8N 117.7W 125 KT 145 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 18.0N 120.3W 120 KT 140 MPH 60H 09/0000Z 19.2N 123.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 20.5N 125.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 10/1200Z 22.9N 129.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 11/1200Z 24.9N 133.1W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly/Brown
