Hurricane Lidia Forecast Discussion Number 30

NOAA - Tropical Weather Updates

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Issued at 900 AM MDT Tue Oct 10 2023

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 101432
TCDEP5
 
Hurricane Lidia Discussion Number  30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152023
900 AM MDT Tue Oct 10 2023
 
Lidia is strengthening as it approaches west-central Mexico. 
Microwave images from a few hours ago indicated that the hurricane 
has developed a well-defined inner core with an eyewall that is 
nearly closed.  Although an eye is not present in geostationary 
satellite images, the central dense overcast has become more 
circular during the last few hours.  The Dvorak estimates have 
increased and now range from 77 to 90 kt, and based on that data and 
the improvement in the system's organization, the initial intensity 
is increased to 85 kt.  This increase in wind speed makes Lidia a 
category 2 hurricane.  The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are in route 
to investigate Lidia this afternoon, and will provide a better 
estimate of the hurricane's intensity.  The outer rain bands of 
Lidia are nearing Isla Las Marias and west-central Mexico, and 
conditions are expected to worsen in that region through the day.
 
Lidia is accelerating to the east-northeast, and the latest initial
motion is 070/13 kt.  The mid- to upper-level trough just to the
west of the hurricane will steer it quickly toward west-central
Mexico and the center should make landfall this evening.  However,
as noted above, weather conditions will deteriorate well before
then since most of the strong winds are east of the center.  The
NHC track forecast is a touch to the south of the previous one and
near the various consensus aids.
 
Additional strengthening is expected due to a combination of very
warm SSTs near 30 C and a favorable upper-level wind pattern.
Lidia will likely be near major hurricane strength when it reaches
the coast, and the NHC intensity forecast closely follows the
hurricane regional models, HAFS-A, HAFS-B, HWRF, and HMON.  Rapid
weakening is expected once Lidia moves inland, and the hurricane is
expected to dissipate by late Wednesday over the rugged terrain of
central Mexico.
 
Based on the forecast, the government of Mexico has extended the
Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings southward.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Lidia is expected to continue to strengthen as it approaches
west-central Mexico today. Dangerous hurricane-force winds are
expected within the Hurricane Warning area beginning this afternoon.
 
2. Heavy rains from Lidia will likely produce flash and urban
flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain
across the the state of Nayarit, southern portions of the state of
Sinaloa, and coastal portions of the state of Jalisco in western
Mexico.
 
3. A dangerous storm surge is expected near and to the south of
where the center of Lidia moves onshore along the coast of
west-central Mexico.
 
4. Swells from Lidia will cause dangerous surf and rip current
conditions along the west coast of Mexico and the Baja California
peninsula during the next couple of days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/1500Z 19.2N 107.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  11/0000Z 20.2N 105.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  11/1200Z 22.2N 102.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  12/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 

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