Issued at 900 AM MDT Tue Sep 20 2022
186 WTPZ44 KNHC 201443 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Madeline Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142022 900 AM MDT Tue Sep 20 2022 Madeline is close to becoming a post-tropical cyclone, having produced little deep convection overnight. Satellite intensity estimates continue to decrease and, based on these and the earlier scatterometer data, the initial intensity has been lowered to 30 kt. The storm is predicted to become a post-tropical cyclone in 12 hours or less due to persistent shear, dry air and cool waters. It is possible Madeline will produce occasional short-lived bursts of convection after it moves away from the cooler ocean waters stirred up by Kay. However, model guidance suggests this convective activity will not be enough to redevelop Madeline as a tropical system. The remnant low is expected to open up into a trough by the end of the forecast period. Madeline is moving west at 7 kt. This general motion is expected to continue with a gradual turn to the west-southwest in the low-level flow. The NHC track forecast is slightly south of the previous advisory and close to the multi-model consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 21.2N 112.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 21.4N 113.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 21/1200Z 21.4N 114.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 22/0000Z 21.4N 116.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 22/1200Z 21.3N 117.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 23/0000Z 21.2N 119.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 23/1200Z 21.0N 120.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 24/1200Z 20.8N 124.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 25/1200Z 20.8N 127.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Bucci
