Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Sep 25 2022
000 WTPZ45 KNHC 251429 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Newton Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022 800 AM PDT Sun Sep 25 2022 Newton barely qualifies as a tropical depression this morning, with a small area of not-exactly-organized deep convection, which has been weakening during the past few hours. The initial wind speed is held at 30 kt, perhaps generously. The system should gradually weaken due to persistent southerly shear helping to entrain drier air into the circulation. This environment should eliminate any significant convection by this evening, and remnant low status is now indicated in 12 hours. The depression is turning leftward, with the motion now estimated at 240/8 kt. Newton should move southwestward during the next few days due to the orientation of the low-level ridge, and the model guidance is in good agreement on this scenario. No significant changes were made to the previous NHC forecast for track or intensity. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 19.0N 116.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 18.3N 117.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 26/1200Z 17.1N 118.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 27/0000Z 15.8N 120.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/1200Z 14.5N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 28/0000Z 13.5N 123.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
