Tropical Depression One-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

NOAA - Tropical Weather Updates

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Issued at 900 AM CST Thu Jul 04 2024

312 
WTPZ41 KNHC 041449
TCDEP1
 
Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012024
900 AM CST Thu Jul 04 2024
 
Showers and thunderstorms have become better organized over the past 
12-18 hours in association with the small area of low pressure that 
NHC has been monitoring for the past several days. There have been 
no recent scatterometer or passive microwave passes to assess the 
low-level circulation of the system. However, the persistence of the 
convection and the current satellite structure suggest a 
well-defined surface circulation has likely formed underneath the 
colder cloud tops. It is determined that the first tropical 
depression of the eastern Pacific season has formed. The initial 
intensity is set at 30 kt based on a T2.0 subjective Dvorak 
classification from TAFB.
 
The center position of the depression is uncertain based on the lack 
of data, but the initial estimated motion is northwest (325/8 kt). 
The models agree that this motion will continue into tonight, 
followed by a westward turn on Friday within the low-level flow. 
With warm SSTs and relatively low shear today, it is possible that 
the system could briefly strengthen into a tropical storm, though 
not explicitly forecast. The tropical cyclone will move across the 
26C isotherm during the next 24-36 h, and the cooler waters and 
drier mid-level environment thereafter should induce a weakening 
trend. In fact, the GFS and ECMWF model-simulated satellite imagery 
suggest convection is likely to collapse on Friday, and the system 
is forecast to become a remnant low by Friday night and dissipate 
later this weekend.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/1500Z 17.0N 105.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  05/0000Z 17.7N 107.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  05/1200Z 17.8N 108.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  06/0000Z 17.5N 109.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  06/1200Z 17.0N 111.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  07/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 

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