Tropical Depression Twelve-E Forecast Discussion Number 4

NOAA - Tropical Weather Updates

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Issued at 500 AM HST Sat Sep 16 2023

WTPZ42 KNHC 161451
Tropical Depression Twelve-E Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122023
500 AM HST Sat Sep 16 2023
The depression has generally changed little overnight and it remains 
strongly sheared with deep convection confined to the eastern side 
of the circulation.  A partial ASCAT-C pass from a few hours ago 
showed an area of 30 kt winds to the east of the center, and that is 
the basis for the initial intensity.
The system is moving westward at 10 kt.  A westward to 
west-southwestward motion is expected in the low- to mid-level flow 
during the next couple of days.  The depression, or its remnant low, 
is expected to move into the Central Pacific basin by tonight.
Strong shear and dry air will continue to affect the depression and 
should ultimately cause the system to lose much of its deep 
convection around the time it crosses into the Central Pacific, as 
persistently forecast by the GFS and ECMWF models.   Dissipation is 
likely to occur in 36 to 48 hours.
INIT  16/1500Z 14.5N 138.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  17/0000Z 14.2N 139.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  17/1200Z 13.8N 141.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  18/0000Z 13.3N 143.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  18/1200Z...DISSIPATED
Forecaster Cangialosi

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