Tropical Depression Twenty-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

NOAA - Tropical Weather Updates

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Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Nov 23 2023

WTPZ45 KNHC 231442
Tropical Depression Twenty-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202023
800 AM PDT Thu Nov 23 2023
The area of low pressure (94E) that NHC has been monitoring has now 
become a tropical depression over the central East Pacific basin.  
Satellite images show that deep convection has been persistent and 
consolidating near the low-level center. Dvorak estimates from TAFB  
and SAB were T2.5 and T1.5, respectively. Using a blend of these 
estimates the initial intensity is set to 30 kt for this advisory. 
The depression is drifting west-northwestward around 2 kt.  A 
continued slow northwestward to north-northwestward motion is 
expected during the next couple of days as the system moves in the 
light steering flow between a ridge to its northeast and a trough to 
its northwest.  The model guidance is in fairly good agreement with 
the system gradually moving poleward, and the NHC track forecast is 
near the various consensus aids.
Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or so.  
However, beyond that time, an increase in vertical wind shear and 
dry air should cause weakening. Simulated satellite from the ECMWF 
and GFS show that the system will likely struggle to produce 
organized deep convection by 72 hours, and therefore the official 
forecast depicts the system becoming a remnant low at that time. 
Most models show the system dissipating and opening into a trough by 
the end of the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast lies near 
the HCCA corrected consensus.
INIT  23/1500Z 11.9N 121.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  24/0000Z 12.3N 121.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  24/1200Z 13.2N 122.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  25/0000Z 14.0N 122.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  25/1200Z 14.9N 123.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  26/0000Z 15.6N 122.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
 72H  26/1200Z 16.2N 122.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  27/1200Z 17.0N 122.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  28/1200Z...DISSIPATED
Forecaster Kelly

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