Tropical Depression Twenty-E Forecast Discussion Number 5

NOAA - Tropical Weather Updates

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Issued at 700 AM PST Fri Nov 24 2023

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 241436
TCDEP5
 
Tropical Depression Twenty-E Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202023
700 AM PST Fri Nov 24 2023
 
Depression Twenty-E continues to have a pulsing convective pattern. 
After a round of deep convection this morning, cloud tops have been 
warming for the last couple of hours. Satellite intensity estimates 
for this cycle were 30 to 35 kt. There was a partial AMSR microwave 
pass this morning, but it missed the convective side of the system. 
There have been no other microwave or scatterometer passes to aid in 
determining the overall low-level organization or intensity of the 
system. Given the warming cloud top temperatures, the initial 
intensity is held at 30 kt near the lower end of the estimated 
intensity range.
 
The depression is moving northwestward around the southwestern edge 
of a mid-level ridge at an estimated motion of 325/5kt. A mid-level 
trough is expected to develop to the northwest of the depression, 
causing the cyclone to slow down and turn northward or 
north-northeastward during the next couple of days. The new NHC 
track forecast is very similar to the previous forecast, near the 
simple consensus aids.
 
West-northwesterly shear currently affecting the system is forecast 
to increase throughout the day.  The vertical wind shear should 
become strong (30-40 kt) in about 24h, and increase to near 50 kt by 
Sunday. As the system moves poleward, it will encounter a drier 
mid-level airmass as well. As a result, little change in intensity 
is forecast for the next couple of days, but there is a slight 
possibility the system could briefly reach tropical storm strength. 
The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, with 
the system forecast to become a remnant low by Sunday, and 
dissipating early next week.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/1500Z 13.4N 123.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  25/0000Z 14.1N 123.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  25/1200Z 14.9N 123.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  26/0000Z 15.5N 123.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  26/1200Z 15.9N 123.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  27/0000Z 16.3N 123.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  27/1200Z 16.9N 124.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  28/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly
 

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