Tropical Storm Jova Forecast Discussion Number 4

NOAA - Tropical Weather Updates

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Issued at 900 AM MDT Tue Sep 05 2023

WTPZ41 KNHC 051452
Tropical Storm Jova Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112023
900 AM MDT Tue Sep 05 2023
Tropical Storm Jova continues to become better organized this 
morning, with deep convection increasing near the low-level center. 
Earlier AMSR microwave imagery showed a mid-level core developing, 
with a sharp curved band on the southern side of system. Subjective 
Dvorak estimates from TAFB and objective ADT intensity estimates 
from UW-CIMMS have increased for this advisory to T3.5/45 kt. Given 
the improved structure and satellite estimates, the intensity for 
this advisory has increased to 45 kt.
The initial motion is westward or 280/9 kt.  Jova is forecast to 
continue on a general west to west-northwest motion the next 
several days along the southern side of a ridge extending westward 
over the southwestern United States.  The track guidance is in 
fairly good agreement, with the main difference being the forward 
speed of Jova in the short-term.  The NHC forecast is close to the 
previous advisory, and lies near the corrected consensus aids.
Jova is in a favorable environment to continue strengthening with 
relatively low vertical wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures 
and moist mid-level RH values. The various model Rapid 
Intensification (RI) indices are all well above normal. The 
intensity forecast calls for rapid intensification, with Jova 
becoming a hurricane on Wednesday. The intensity forecast lies at 
the higher end of the guidance envelope given the favorable 
parameters for RI, closest to the SHIPS guidance.  Later in the 
forecast period, the system is forecast to move over a sharp SST 
gradient with much cooler ocean temperatures inducing a weakening 
INIT  05/1500Z 13.1N 107.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  06/0000Z 13.4N 108.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  06/1200Z 14.1N 110.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  07/0000Z 15.1N 112.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  07/1200Z 16.2N 115.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 60H  08/0000Z 17.5N 117.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  08/1200Z 18.7N 120.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
 96H  09/1200Z 21.3N 124.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  10/1200Z 23.6N 129.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
Forecaster Kelly/Blake

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