Tropical Storm Norma Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

NOAA - Tropical Weather Updates

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Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 17 2023

000
FOPZ12 KNHC 172016
PWSEP2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM NORMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172023               
2100 UTC TUE OCT 17 2023                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORMA WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  33(40)  25(65)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)  17(28)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   8(12)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  30(35)  27(62)
SAN JOSE CABO  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  14(23)
SAN JOSE CABO  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  16(17)  26(43)
LA PAZ         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)
LA PAZ         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
LORETO         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)
 
GUAYMAS        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
HUATABAMPO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)
 
CULIACAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)  11(22)  10(32)
ISLAS MARIAS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
ISLAS MARIAS   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)  13(23)
MAZATLAN       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
MAZATLAN       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   5( 9)   6(15)
 
P VALLARTA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   2( 8)
 
15N 105W       34  1   6( 7)   4(11)   3(14)   3(17)   1(18)   X(18)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)
 
MANZANILLO     34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   5( 9)   2(11)   1(12)
 
CLIPPERTON IS  34  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
15N 110W       34  9  36(45)  12(57)   3(60)   3(63)   1(64)   X(64)
15N 110W       50  X   2( 2)   5( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)
15N 110W       64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
20N 110W       34  X   X( X)   6( 6)  11(17)  48(65)  21(86)   4(90)
20N 110W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  23(24)  28(52)   5(57)
20N 110W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  21(30)   3(33)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   3( 3)   7(10)  15(25)  37(62)  12(74)   2(76)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  18(19)  13(32)   1(33)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  10(18)   X(18)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   2(10)
 
20N 115W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   3(11)
 
25N 115W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KELLY                                                    

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