Tropical Storm Norma Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

NOAA - Tropical Weather Updates

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Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 18 2023

141 
FOPZ12 KNHC 181454
PWSEP2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM NORMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172023               
1500 UTC WED OCT 18 2023                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORMA WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  27(33)  20(53)   5(58)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  10(15)   3(18)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)  24(29)  18(47)   5(52)
SAN JOSE CABO  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)   4(15)
SAN JOSE CABO  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)  13(24)   6(30)
LA PAZ         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)
 
LORETO         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
CULIACAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   6(11)  11(22)   5(27)   3(30)
ISLAS MARIAS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   7( 9)   6(15)   5(20)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   6(11)   3(14)   2(16)
 
P VALLARTA     34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)
 
15N 105W       34  4   4( 8)   2(10)   2(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  1   1( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
 
MANZANILLO     34  1   3( 4)   3( 7)   3(10)   3(13)   1(14)   1(15)
 
15N 110W       34 16   6(22)   4(26)   3(29)   2(31)   1(32)   X(32)
15N 110W       50  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
20N 110W       34  2   4( 6)  15(21)  32(53)  34(87)   1(88)   1(89)
20N 110W       50  X   X( X)   2( 2)  12(14)  37(51)   3(54)   X(54)
20N 110W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  23(28)   2(30)   X(30)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  2   5( 7)  13(20)  21(41)  17(58)   3(61)   1(62)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   9(16)   X(16)   1(17)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   1( 7)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
20N 115W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)
 
25N 115W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER REINHART                                                 

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