Issued at 1000 AM CDT Wed Oct 25 2023
000 WTPZ43 KNHC 251500 TCDEP3 Hurricane Otis Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023 1000 AM CDT Wed Oct 25 2023 The center of Otis continues to move farther inland, and assuming a typical overland decay rate, the current intensity estimate is reduced to 70 kt. These hurricane-force winds are likely occurring over a small area near the center of the circulation. Otis should continue to weaken rapidly over the rugged terrain of southern Mexico today, and the system is expected to dissipate by late tonight. Otis is moving north-northwestward at about 345/9 kt. A ridge to the northeast of Otis and a trough to its northwest should continue to steer the cyclone north-northwestward until dissipation in 24 hours. The official track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane-force winds are still occuring inland over the mountainous terrain of southern Mexico near the center of Otis. 3. Heavy rains from Otis will continue to impact areas of southwest Mexico through Thursday. This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 18.2N 100.6W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 12H 26/0000Z 19.4N 101.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
