Tropical Storm Otis Forecast Discussion Number 14

NOAA - Tropical Weather Updates

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Issued at 1000 AM CDT Wed Oct 25 2023

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 251500
TCDEP3
 
Hurricane Otis Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182023
1000 AM CDT Wed Oct 25 2023
The center of Otis continues to move farther inland, and assuming a 
typical overland decay rate, the current intensity estimate is 
reduced to 70 kt.  These hurricane-force winds are likely occurring 
over a small area near the center of the circulation.  Otis should 
continue to weaken rapidly over the rugged terrain of southern 
Mexico today, and the system is expected to dissipate by late 
tonight.
 
Otis is moving north-northwestward at about 345/9 kt.  A ridge to 
the northeast of Otis and a trough to its northwest should
continue to steer the cyclone north-northwestward until dissipation 
in 24 hours.  The official track forecast is very similar to the 
previous advisory.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Hurricane-force winds are still occuring inland over the 
mountainous terrain of southern Mexico near the center of Otis.
 
3. Heavy rains from Otis will continue to impact areas of southwest 
Mexico through Thursday.  This rainfall will produce flash and 
urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/1500Z 18.2N 100.6W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND
 12H  26/0000Z 19.4N 101.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 24H  26/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 

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