Tropical Storm Paine Forecast Discussion Number 4

NOAA - Tropical Weather Updates

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Issued at 900 AM MDT Tue Oct 04 2022

WTPZ42 KNHC 041445
Tropical Storm Paine Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172022
900 AM MDT Tue Oct 04 2022
Deep convection continues to burst around the western portion of
Paine's circulation.  Infrared and early-light visible satellite
imagery suggests that there has been some increase in convective
banding, and that the center is slightly more embedded within the 
colder cloud tops.  Despite the slight increase in organization, 
subjective and objective Dvorak classifications have not changed 
much and still support an initial intensity of 35 kt.  Hopefully 
scatterometer data will provide additional information on the size 
and intensity of Paine this afternoon.
Paine still has a very brief window of opportunity in which to
intensify.  The deep-layer shear is forecast to remain low today,
but is expected to increase significantly tonight and Wednesday.
Therefore, some slight strengthening is predicted, followed by
gradual weakening due to the unfavorable upper-level environment
and an increasing dry mid-level air mass.  Paine is expected to 
become a remnant low in about 48 hours, and dissipate around day 3.
The cyclone is moving northwestward or 325/6 kt.  Paine should 
continue northwestward for the 24-36 hours around the western 
side of a mid-level ridge.  After that time, a bend to the 
west-northwest and west is predicted as Paine becomes increasingly 
shallow and is steered by the low-level tradewind flow. The 
latest NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory and 
lies near the simple consensus aids. 
INIT  04/1500Z 17.5N 113.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  05/0000Z 18.1N 113.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  05/1200Z 18.6N 114.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  06/0000Z 18.9N 114.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  06/1200Z 19.2N 114.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  07/0000Z 19.4N 115.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  07/1200Z 19.4N 116.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  08/1200Z...DISSIPATED
Forecaster Brown

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