Tropical Storm Pilar Forecast Advisory Number 20

NOAA - Tropical Weather Updates

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Issued at 1500 UTC THU NOV 02 2023

000
WTPZ24 KNHC 021436
TCMEP4
 
TROPICAL STORM PILAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192023
1500 UTC THU NOV 02 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N  95.2W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT  13 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE  40SE  50SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  60SE  90SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N  95.2W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N  94.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 11.2N  97.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 10.5N 100.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  20SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 10.1N 104.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  20SE  20SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 10.2N 106.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  10SE  10SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 10.5N 109.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  10SE  10SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 10.9N 111.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  10SE  10SW  40NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 11.9N 114.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 13.1N 117.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N  95.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KELLY
 
 

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