Issued at 800 AM MST Tue Sep 02 2025
095 WTPZ32 KNHC 021457 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorena Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122025 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 800 AM MST Tue Sep 02 2025 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E BECOMES TROPICAL STORM LORENA... SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 107.9W ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 345 MI...550 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of this system. A Tropical Storm Watch could be required for portions of Baja California Sur later today or on Wednesday. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 107.9 West. Lorena is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next few days before slowing and turning north then northeastward toward the latter portion of this week. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Lorena could reach hurricane strength by Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Areas of heavy rainfall well east and northeast of Tropical Storm Lorena will continue to impact portions of northwestern Mexico from the states of Colima to Sinaloa today, with isolated flash flooding possible in areas of mountainous terrain. Bands of heavy rainfall are expected to begin impacting Baja California Sur by Wednesday and potentially persist through Friday, with rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of 12 inches possible across portions of Baja California Sur and southwestern Sonora through Friday. Uncertainty remains with these totals, and locally higher or lower amounts are possible depending on the track and strength of the system. Potentially significant flash flooding is a possibility. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Gallina
