Issued at 800 AM MST Sun Sep 14 2025
000 WTPZ43 KNHC 141443 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025 800 AM MST Sun Sep 14 2025 Overnight and this morning, convection has increased in both coverage and organization with the remnants of Mario, which is now just east-southeast of Socorro Island. Earlier scatterometer data from a Metop-B pass at 0428 UTC indicated that a well-defined center had reformed with a peak wind retrieval of 27 kt. Given the improvement of the system's structure on satellite imagery since that time, it appears that Mario is now on its second life as a tropical cyclone. There was some question as to if this system was fully Mario, or some combination with another disturbance it is interacting with embedded in the monsoon trough to the south. However, there appears to be enough continuity between the prior circulation we were tracking near the coast of Mexico on Friday and the reformation of this new center to indicate this system is the same entity. The initial intensity this advisory is being set to 35 kt, in good agreement with the 12 UTC TAFB Dvorak fix of T2.5/35 kt, a DPRINT estimate of 36 kt at 13 UTC, and a recent pressure observation of 1005 mb at Socorro Island, which appears to be just to the northwest of the tropical storm. Mario is estimated to be moving slowly to the west-northwest at 285/7 kt. This general motion should continue for the next several days as Mario is primarily steered by deep-layer ridging centered over Mexico. Beyond 48 hours, Mario will likely become a shallow tropical cyclone and bend more westward before it dissipates in 3-4 days. The NHC track forecast is in fairly good agreement with the guidance aids, and generally is close to the simple and corrected consensus aids. Mario is in a favorable environment currently, with low shear under 10 kt, warm sea-surface temperatures between 28-30C, and plenty of mid-level moisture. These favorable conditions persist for about 36 hours, and intensification is shown in the forecast, not that far off the most recent HAFS-B forecast. Afterwards, Mario will cross a very sharp temperature gradient while vertical wind shear also increases out of the southwest. Thus, Mario will likely weaken quickly between 48-60 h, losing its organized convection to become a shallow remnant low by 60 h, and dissipating entirely in 3-4 days. The NHC intensity forecast is a bit on the high side of the overall guidance envelope, but is close to the peak intensity of the latest HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA). FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 18.5N 110.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 19.1N 111.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 19.9N 113.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 20.9N 115.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 22.1N 117.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 17/0000Z 23.4N 119.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/1200Z 24.0N 121.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin
