Issued at 800 AM MST Tue Sep 23 2025
092 WTPZ44 KNHC 231438 TCDEP4 Hurricane Narda Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142025 800 AM MST Tue Sep 23 2025 Narda has strengthened significantly overnight. Satellite images show that deep convection has been expanding in all quadrants and the inner core is becoming better organized. The latest satellite intensity estimates range from 68 to 77 kt, and based on that data and the improving cloud pattern, the initial intensity is increased to 75 kt. The hurricane is moving generally westward at 11 kt steered by a strong subtropical high to its north. This high is expected to shift westward and continue to keep Narda on a general westward track away from Mexico during the next 2 or 3 days. After that time, the models show a weakness developing in the ridge associated with a cut off low moving southward over southern California. This pattern change should cause Narda to slow down and turn northwestward late this week and over the weekend. The NHC track forecast is fairly similar to the previous one and closest to the HCCA aid. Narda is likely to continue to strengthen over the next day or so while it remains in generally conducive atmospheric and oceanic conditions. By late tomorrow, the models show an increase in easterly shear and that should cause the intensity of Narda to level off later in the week. A weakening trend should begin this weekend when Narda is expected to track over cooler waters and into more stable conditions. The NHC track forecast is at the top end of the guidance in the short term, but falls close to the middle of the guidance envelope by the end of the period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 15.8N 107.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 15.6N 108.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 15.5N 111.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 15.5N 113.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 15.7N 115.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 26/0000Z 16.1N 118.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 16.8N 120.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 27/1200Z 18.4N 123.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 28/1200Z 20.3N 123.7W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
