Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Sep 27 2025
000 WTPZ44 KNHC 271435 TCDEP4 Hurricane Narda Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142025 800 AM PDT Sat Sep 27 2025 Narda is still maintaining its strength with the inner core remaining intact and convective bands wrapping around it on the south and east sides. However, dry slots are increasing on the northwest side of the circulation, an indication that weakening could commence soon. The initial intensity is again held at 80 kt, near the upper end of the latest satellite intensity estimates. The hurricane has just crossed the 26 C SST isotherm and will be tracking over progressively cooler waters during the next several days. In addition, the global models show the system moving into a progressively drier air mass and stronger shear. All of these factors support steady to rapid weakening, and Narda should fall below hurricane strength tonight or early Sunday and decay to a post-tropical low within a couple of days. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and in line with the majority of the guidance. As expected, Narda is slowing down and gradually turning to the right. This trend should continue while the ridge to the north of the cyclone breaks down due to a large-scale trough moving across the north Pacific. Narda is forecast turn northward in a day or so, and continue in that general direction until it dissipates around the middle of next week. No significant changes were made to the previous track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 18.0N 124.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 18.5N 125.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 19.4N 125.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 20.4N 125.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 21.3N 125.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 30/0000Z 21.9N 125.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 30/1200Z 22.5N 125.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/1200Z 23.7N 125.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
