Issued at 1100 AM MST Sun Oct 05 2025
000 WTPZ31 KNHC 051740 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Priscilla Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162025 1100 AM MST Sun Oct 05 2025 ...PRISCILLA A LITTLE STRONGER WHILE MOVING SLOWLY... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE FOR COASTAL SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM MST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 107.1W ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Punta Mita, Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next day or so. Interests in southern Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Priscilla. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM MST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Priscilla was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 107.1 West. Priscilla is moving toward the north-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h) and this general motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of the system is expected to move offshore of and parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico through the early part of this week. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next several days, and Priscilla is likely to become a hurricane later today or tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Priscilla can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area along the southwestern coast of Mexico today into Monday. RAINFALL: Outer bands from Priscilla will bring heavy rain to portions of southwestern Mexico through Monday. Across coastal portions of Michoacán and far western Guerrero, additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected, with local amounts up to 6 inches. Across Colima, western Jalisco, and the rest of Guerrero along the coast, 1 to 3 inches of additional rainfall are expected. This rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding, especially in areas of higher terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Priscilla, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Priscilla are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and will reach portions of the coast of west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula by Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Papin
