Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 05 2025
000
FOPZ11 KNHC 051441
PWSEP1
TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162025
1500 UTC SUN OCT 05 2025
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7)
P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10)
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 19(28) 2(30) X(30)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 15(23) 2(25) X(25)
SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 4(17) 1(18)
LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 2 3( 5) 5(10) 4(14) 3(17) X(17) X(17)
MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
SAN BLAS 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
P VALLARTA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
15N 105W 34 8 4(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
MANZANILLO 34 4 3( 7) 4(11) 1(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13)
L CARDENAS 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
15N 110W 34 3 4( 7) 3(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13)
20N 110W 34 3 4( 7) 21(28) 48(76) 16(92) X(92) X(92)
20N 110W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 32(34) 24(58) X(58) X(58)
20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 19(33) 1(34) X(34)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 3 4( 7) 14(21) 36(57) 14(71) 1(72) X(72)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 14(27) X(27) X(27)
ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) X(13) X(13)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 4(15) X(15)
20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 8(25) X(25)
20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 29(32) 7(39)
25N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9)
25N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
