Issued at 900 AM CST Fri Oct 10 2025
000 WTPZ42 KNHC 101443 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Raymond Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172025 900 AM CST Fri Oct 10 2025 Raymond continues to be a convectively asymmetric tropical storm, due to moderate to strong easterly wind shear. A GMI microwave pass at 1035 UTC shows that there is limited curved banding structure in association with the deep convection with cold cloud tops near -80C over the western side of the system. There is a fairly large range of subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates from 30 to 45 kt. Given the scatterometer satellite wind derived data from last night, the initial intensity will be held just above those estimates at 50 kt. The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 305/13 kt. A strong mid-level ridge over northern Mexico will continue to steer the system towards the northwest over the next day or so, with the center paralleling the southwestern coast of Mexico. The system will begin to move more north-northwestward then northward as it rounds the western periphery of the ridge towards Baja California Sur. Track guidance is tightly clustered, and the NHC track is near the previous forecast, which lies near the consensus aids. The storm will continue to be affected by moderate to strong easterly vertical wind shear, limiting strengthening even though the system remains over warm sea surface temperatures near 29C. The system will begin to move into a drier more stable airmass in about 24 h, thus a slow weakening trend will begin. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, near the consensus aids. However, there is some uncertainty as to whether the system will still be a tropical storm as it approaches Baja California Sur. Global simulated IR satellite shows convection waning in about 2 days, and then models have the system opening into a trough early next week. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along portions of Baja California Sur on Saturday. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with Raymond will impact coastal sections of southwestern and northwestern Mexico through Sunday, which could result in flash flooding, particularly in areas of higher terrain. Moisture from Raymond will bring the threat of additional heavy rains to portions of the Southwest U.S. Sunday into early next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 18.3N 104.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 19.6N 107.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 21.4N 109.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 23.2N 110.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 25.6N 110.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly
