Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Oct 28 2025
000 WTPZ43 KNHC 281435 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Sonia Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182025 800 AM PDT Tue Oct 28 2025 Sonia remains a sheared tropical cyclone with a large area of deep convection located to the northwest of the low-level center. There is little banding evident in conventional and recent microwave imagery. The initial intensity remains 40 kt, which is based primarily on earlier scatterometer data and a Dvorak T-number of 2.5 from TAFB. Moderate to strong southern shear is expected to persist during the next couple of days while Sonia moves over gradually decreasing SSTs and into a drier mid-level environment. These negative factors are expected to result in weakening and degeneration into a remnant low within 24 hours. The circulation is forecast by the global models to open up into a trough in about 48 hours, therefore dissipation is shown at that time. Sonia is moving west-northwestward, or 290 degrees, at 7 kt. A turn toward the west is expected later today as the cyclone becomes vertically shallow. The updated NHC track is a blend of the latest Google DeepMind ensemble mean and the simple consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 15.1N 123.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 15.2N 124.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 15.3N 126.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 30/0000Z 15.1N 128.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
