The Extreme Event Solutions group at Verisk has estimated that industry insured losses to onshore property in Jamaica from Hurricane Melissa will likely range from $2.2 billion to $4.2 billion.
The global data analytics and technology firm provided a meteorological context for the event, noting that Melissa became a hurricane on October 21.
The storm reportedly underwent rapid intensification on October 25, driven by exceptionally warm sea surface temperatures and minimal wind shear.
After turning north-northeast, the storm strengthened further, reaching maximum sustained winds of 185 mph and a minimum central pressure of 892 mb as it approached Jamaica on October 28.
Melissa made landfall at peak intensity near New Hope in Westmoreland Parish, then weakened over Jamaica’s mountainous terrain before emerging off the north coast as a Category 4 hurricane.
Verisk’s range of $2.2-$4.2 billion aligns with that of Aon, which recently cautioned that total economic and insured losses could reach the single-digit billions of USD, and potentially rise further as additional damage assessments are completed.
Verisk’s industry loss range includes estimated wind and precipitation-induced flood from Melissa’s track across Jamaica, with most of the modelled loss attributable to wind.
It is worth noting that Verisk’s loss estimates do not include losses paid out by any sovereign or government protection programs; losses from interactions with Cuba, Haiti, the Bahamas, or Bermuda; explicitly modeled losses from coastal storm surge; losses to inland marine, ocean-going marine cargo and hull, and pleasure boats or yachts; losses to uninsured properties; losses to infrastructure; losses from extra-contractual obligations; losses from hazardous waste cleanup, vandalism, or civil commotion, whether directly or indirectly caused by the event; loss adjustment expenses; or the impact of demand surge.
“It (Melissa) was the most intense hurricane to make landfall in Jamaica since recordkeeping began and was tied for the most intense hurricane landfall globally since record keeping began by minimum central pressure and by maximum wind speed,” Verisk explained in its most recent report on the matter.
The firm continued, “It was also the most intense storm of 2025 and is third only behind 2005 Hurricane Wilma and 1988 Hurricane Gilbert for lowest minimum central pressure in an Atlantic hurricane.
“Significant uncertainty exists in the insurance take-up rates in Jamaica. The residential take-up rates in the country are less than 20% and a significant portion of these insured properties are underinsured. A significant portion of commercial and automobile lines are also uninsured.”
In related news, AccuWeather has pegged Hurricane Melissa’s potential economic losses at up to $52 billion.
Meanwhile, the Jamaican government is poised to receive a record $70.8 million payout under the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility (CCRIF SPC) parametric insurance program.
According to our sister publication, Artemis, the World Bank is also preparing a broad package of financial support to help Jamaica recover from the storm.
The development organisation also indicated that a payout from Jamaica’s catastrophe bond is now considered likely.
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