Issued at 800 AM MST Sat May 31 2025
000 WTPZ41 KNHC 311437 TCDEP1 Post-Tropical Cyclone Alvin Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012025 800 AM MST Sat May 31 2025 Cool waters, dry mid-level air, and strong vertical wind shear have taken their toll on Alvin. The system has been devoid of deep convection for more than 12 hours, and has become a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds. The initial intensity has been lowered to a possibly generous 30 kt. Continued hostile environmental conditions are expected to prevent any return of deep convection, and therefore this will be the final advisory on the system as it has become a post-tropical remnant low. The low should continue to spin down as it moves slowly northward today. Global model guidance indicates that the low will open up into a trough of low pressure as it passes near the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula in about 24 hours. Swells generated by Alvin are expected to persist along portions of the west-central mainland Mexico and southern Baja California coasts through the weekend, creating potentially dangerous surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/1500Z 20.7N 109.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 01/0000Z 21.8N 109.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
