Issued at 900 AM CST Thu Jun 19 2025
000 WTPZ45 KNHC 191438 TCDEP5 Hurricane Erick Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 900 AM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 Erick made landfall in the municipality of Santiago Pinotepa Nacional in extreme western Oaxaca, Mexico, around 1130 UTC this morning with maximum sustained winds estimated to be near 110 kt (125 mph). It should be noted that the major hurricane's structure was degrading as it approached the coast. In fact, the eye feature was not apparent at the landfall time, making the exact location and time that Erick crossed the coast uncertain. Erick was the earliest major hurricane landfall in Mexico since records began, and that includes both the Atlantic and Pacific coasts. The hurricane has been rapidly weakening since it made landfall. The inner core appears to be collapsing with cloud tops warming near the center. The strongest convection is located to the west of the inner core near and to the south of Acapulco. The initial intensity is lowered to 75 kt, but there is a high amount of uncertainty around that value. Continued rapid weakening is forecast as the system moves northwestward and farther inland, and Erick is expected to dissipate over the rugged terrain of southwestern Mexico by tonight. Although the winds are expected to continue to decrease rapidly, heavy rains will linger over portions of southern and southwestern Mexico. So far, there has been a report of about 250 mm (10 in) of rain in El Marques in Oaxaca, and additional heavy rains are expected through tonight. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Erick will continue to produce heavy rainfall across portions of Southwest Mexico mainly through tonight. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are likely, especially in areas of steep terrain. 2. Hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, will continue for a couple of more hours in the hurricane warning area. 3. Storm surge could still produce coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 16.7N 98.8W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 12H 20/0000Z 17.5N 100.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
