Issued at 800 AM MST Wed Jul 02 2025
000 WTPZ41 KNHC 021434 TCDEP1 Hurricane Flossie Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 800 AM MST Wed Jul 02 2025 Satellite imagery shows that the inner core of Flossie has started to degrade this morning, and the eye has become more ragged and cloud filled. An AMSR2 microwave pass around 0916 UTC shows that the northern eyewall has started to deteriorate, and is open on the northern side. This suggest a weakening trend has begun, and Flossie has likely reached peak intensity. While the system has peaked, deep cold convection continues to wrap around the southern and eastern side of the system. Satellite intensity estimates range from 90-100 kt. Given the latest satellite trends and using a blend of the estimates, the initial intensity is set to 95 kt for this advisory. Flossie continues to move toward the west-northwest or 300/9 knots. This general motion is expected to continue throughout the remainder of the forecast period, towards a weakness in the mid-level ridge. The latest NHC track forecast was nudged slightly to the right of the previous, and lies near the HCCA corrected consensus. A steady to rapid weakening trend is expected to begin today. Along the forecast track, Flossie will continue to move into cooler sea surface temperatures and drier mid-level air. Thus, the NHC intensity forecast shows a little quicker weakening trend compared to the previous, and lies near the simple intensity consensus. Flossie expected to become a post-tropical low by 36 hours, with dissipation following by 96 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 19.0N 109.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 19.7N 110.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 20.6N 111.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 21.7N 113.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 04/1200Z 22.7N 114.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 05/0000Z 23.7N 116.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/1200Z 24.4N 118.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly
