CatIQ, a Toronto-based independent catastrophe insurance data provider and a subsidiary of PERILS, has released its fifth industry loss estimate for the flash flooding that impacted southern Ontario on 15th and 16th July 2024, estimating CAD 899 million.
As a reminder, in July 2024, southern Ontario, including Toronto and the Greater Toronto Area, experienced extensive flash flooding sparked by heavy rainfall.
Two-day rainfall amounts exceeded 120mm in some places, including at Toronto Pearson Airport (123 mm).
This was caused by a stationary weather system that brought moisture from the Gulf of Mexico northward.
This estimate provides a snapshot of the insurance market one-year post-event. The CAD 899 million estimate is down 9% from CatIQ’s fourth loss estimate of CAD 991 million, released on 17th January 2025.
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The loss number covers property (both commercial and residential) and vehicle (motor) claims including additional loss adjustment expenses.
The majority of the loss figure was from personal property-related losses, accounting for over 85% of the total claims and more than 75% of the total loss.
CatIQ will release a sixth and final update of the market loss on 16 July 2026, two years after the event end date.
Caroline Floyd, Director of CatIQ, commented, “The one-year data shows a modest decrease in the number of personal claims but a noticeable drop in the incurred costs, along with a corresponding decrease of about nine percent in the average personal claim size. That suggests that, in addition to companies releasing reserve amounts, some claims may have been feeling the effects of policy and coverage limits as they’ve been resolved. With about 90 percent of total claims reporting as closed as of the one-year mark, it will be interesting to see if those yet-outstanding claims follow the same trend by the final loss estimate issued next year.”
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