Cotality has estimated that total insured losses from Hurricane Melissa, which recently devastated Jamaica, will be around $1.5 billion, within a range of $1 billion to $2.5 billion, while total property damage from wind, storm surge, and flooding is expected to range between $5 billion and $9 billion.
It is important to note that the firm’s insured loss estimate does not include automobile infrastructure, offshore marine, inland marine, or losses to other islands.
Providing meteorological context for the event, Cotality explained that Melissa made landfall near New Hope with measured surface winds of 185 mph, tying the record for the strongest known landfall in Jamaican history.
“Final high-resolution wind, surge and rainfall observations are still being compiled, but early re-analysis confirms that, consistent with many Category 5 hurricanes, the corridor of extreme winds was only a few tens of kilometres wide,” the firm added.
With this in mind, much of the island experienced tropical-storm-force conditions. Cotality said that communities in the south-west and north-west, including Montego Bay, faced peak gusts well above 150 mph and storm surge exceeding 3 meters.
“The storm’s western eyewall scoured Jamaica’s breadbasket. In St. Elizabeth parish alone, the 185 mph winds destroyed large egg and crop operations, fueling fears of staple shortages and higher food prices until at least February 2026,” Cotality observed.
Montego Bay’s tourism corridor also suffered extensive structural damage. Sandals Resorts International is set to reopen five properties on 6 December, though three flagship resorts, Montego Bay, Royal Caribbean, and South Coast, will remain closed until 30 May 2026, underscoring the depth of losses on the north-west coast and at Sangster International Airport.
Cotality suggested that local insurers cede the majority of catastrophe risk, so reinsurers are expected to absorb most of the payout.
The firm concluded, “In Jamaica, the immediate priorities are restoring the remaining power and water systems, reopening schools, supporting farmers and safeguarding public health as debris removal and rebuilding accelerate.
“International aid, disaster‐insurance inflows and CAT-bond proceeds are now being mobilised, and the tourism sector is targeting a partial rebound by mid-December.”
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