Global insured catastrophe losses in H1 2025 could reach as high as $90 billion, according to Jefferies, making it the second-highest first-half total on record.
This projected figure sharply exceeds both the $58 billion recorded in H1 2024 and the five-year average of $55 billion. The elevated losses were driven primarily by widespread wildfire activity in California during Q1 2025, as well as a high frequency of severe convective storms (SCS) across the US, particularly during the typically active Q2.
“We estimate Q2’25 global insured catastrophe losses to be in line with the 5-year average of $30 billion, with ~85% of losses coming from the US,” Jefferies said.
Wind, tornado, and hail event counts were slightly higher year-over-year and approximately 20% above the five-year average.
Among the most costly events of the quarter was the mid-May SCS outbreak across the Ohio River Valley, with estimated insured losses of $5 billion.
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Jefferies said it expects lighter nat cat losses for reinsurers in Q2’25, with primary carriers bearing the brunt of the impact due to the nature of the events.
Meanwhile, international natural catastrophe losses remained in line with the five-year average of around $3 billion.
Notable weather-related events included severe convective storms in early May that affected Spain, France, and Southeast Europe, with estimated losses potentially reaching into the hundreds of millions.
Separate storm systems in early June hit Western and Central Europe, also expected to result in hundreds of millions in insured losses. Mid-June storms brought further damage to Western France and Northern Italy, with similarly high projected losses.
In late June, Hurricane Erick made landfall on Mexico’s Pacific coast, though insured losses are anticipated to be significantly lower than those from 2023’s Hurricane Otis, which caused approximately $2 billion in insured damages. Additionally, the collapse of the Blatten glacier in Switzerland on May 28 is projected to result in around $390 million in incurred losses.
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