Verisk, a global data analytics and technology provider to the insurance industry, has estimated insured industry losses to property and auto from Winter Storm Fern to reach $4 billion, largely driven by freeze impacts, with supplemental losses from wind and snow.
The early results from Verisk’s updated U.S. Winter Storm Model indicate that 14 states, stretching from Texas to Massachusetts, may each exceed $50 million in insured losses.
However, loss estimation is a bit complicated due to the storm’s varied regional impacts and ongoing power outages in the interior Southeast, explained the firm.
The firm warned that if estimates hold, Fern would be the third costliest US winter storm on record, after Winter Storm Elliott (2022) and Winter Storm Uri (2021).
This initial analysis was conducted by Verisk’s Catastrophe and Risk Solutions group, which explained that Fern brought freezing rain, heavy snow and severe thunderstorms that affected the Midwest, Northeast, South, Tennessee Valley and Mid-Atlantic from January 23rd to 26th.
Verisk noted that freezing rain caused widespread power outages across Georgia, the Carolinas and Virginia. The most severe icing of up to one inch was reported from eastern Texas into northern Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee and Kentucky, increasing the likelihood of burst pipes.
Additionally, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Illinois, and Ohio saw heavy snowfall, with accumulations topping one foot in several areas and cold temperatures hampering repair efforts.
Meanwhile, southern Alabama and southern Georgia received severe thunderstorms that produced wind gusts above 60 mph, small hail and several tornado touchdowns.
Verisk explained that Fern was unusually intense, driven by the collision of warm, moist subtropical air with extremely cold Arctic air.
The event was modelled using the updated Verisk U.S. Winter Storm Model, scheduled for release in June 2026.
Recently, catastrophe risk modelling firm Karen Clark and Company (KCC) estimated that the privately insured loss from Fern would be $6.7 billion.
Additionally, Aon recently estimated that insured and economic losses from the same could top $1 billion, while BMS expects insured losses to be in the hundreds of millions.
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