The privately insured loss from Hurricane Melissa damages to residential, commercial, and industrial properties in Jamaica and Cuba is expected to hit $2.4 billion, based on Karen Clark & Company’s (KCC) high-resolution Caribbean Hurricane Model.
Catastrophe risk modeller KCC explained that despite this storm devastating parts of Jamaica and Cuba, the insured impact will be significantly less than the total economic impact due to low insurance penetration rates.
Hurricane Melissa made two landfalls: in Jamaica on October 28th as a Category 5 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 185mph, and in Cuba on October 29th as a Category 3 hurricane with 120-mph winds.
The storm became the third Category 5 hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic season, resulting in hurricane-force winds that impacted the entire western half of Jamaica and an 80-mile swath of eastern Cuba, including the islands of the southern Bahamas, explains KCC.
Melissa is tied with the 1935 Labor Day hurricane as the most intense landfalling Atlantic hurricane and is the third-most intense Atlantic hurricane overall by central pressure.
Detailing the damages caused by Hurricane Melissa, which first made landfall in New Hope, Jamaica, KCC said that the most severe impacts were concentrated in the western parishes of St. Elizabeth, St. James, and Westmoreland.
Additionally, the most common damage mode observed after the storm was roof pull-out with walls and framing still intact. The roofs are lightweight, made mostly of metal or zinc sheets, making them often the weakest part of the structure and highly vulnerable during hurricanes, stated KCC.
The town of Black River in St. Elizabeth Parish experienced 150-mph wind speeds, resulting in over 75% of buildings being damaged or destroyed. Montego Bay in St. James Parish, which is the main source of commercial losses from this event, according to KCC, saw winds of 135 mph, experiencing severe damage to both residential and commercial buildings.
Savanna-la-Mar in Westmoreland Parish experienced 125-mph winds, resulting in significant damage, however, less severe than Black River. While the capital of Jamaica, Kingston, experienced only tropical storm-force winds and sustained much less damage compared to the western towns, where KCC hopes losses to be low.
In eastern Cuba, buildings in the affected areas sustained extensive envelope and structural damage, with approximately ten per cent facing total collapse, while over 30% lost their roofs completely. Moreover, over half of the affected buildings suffered moderate or severe roof damage, including loss of covering, deck separation, or framing failure, notes KCC.
Recently, Cotality estimated the total insured losses from the event to be around $1.5 billion, within a range of $1 billion to $2.5 billion, while total property damage from wind, storm surge, and flooding is expected to range between $5 billion and $9 billion.
The Extreme Event Solutions group at Verisk believes that industry insured losses to onshore property in Jamaica from Hurricane Melissa will likely range from $2.2-4.2 billion.
According to AccuWeather’s preliminary estimates, the storm caused $48-52 billion in total damage and economic losses.
Meanwhile, re/insurance broker Aon warns that total economic and insured losses could land in the single-digit billions of USD, and potentially higher after future damage assessments.
It is also noteworthy that the government of Jamaica is set to receive a record payout of $70.8 million (J$11.4 billion), under the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility Segregated Portfolio Company (CCRIF SPC) parametric insurance model.
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