Catastrophe risk modelling firm Karen Clark and Company (KCC) has estimated that the privately insured loss from Winter Storm Fern, which brought snow and ice to more than 30 states, will be $6.7 billion.
The estimate, which is based on the high-resolution KCC US Winter Storm Model, includes the privately insured damage to residential, commercial, and industrial properties from freeze, snow/ice, and wind.
Providing meteorological context for the event, KCC explained that on January 23, an Arctic air mass dipped southward, bringing frigid temperatures to the Great Plains and Midwest.
A low-pressure system, Winter Storm Fern, developed along the leading edge of this air mass where the cold air interacted with warm, moist air streaming in from the Gulf.
“The warm air mass overran the denser Arctic air, producing widespread sleet and freezing rain from Texas through the Carolinas. These conditions led to significant ice accumulations, including at least an inch in northwestern Alabama, northern Louisiana, northern Mississippi, and Oklahoma,” KCC added.
Fern then reportedly progressed to the northeast on January 24 and 25 and delivered heavy snowfall all along its track, from Arkansas through Maine, in addition to more freezing rain in the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic states.
KCC observed that while Fern tracked toward the Northeast, the Arctic air mass overspread the eastern two-thirds of the country.
According to the catastrophe risk modelling firm, the most significant sub-peril for Fern was freeze, followed by snow and ice, with freeze damage compounded by freezing rain that led to ice accumulation.
KCC continued, “The ice felled trees and brought down powerlines, which caused widespread power outages from east Texas to Kentucky, as well as southern New Mexico.
“The highest per-customer rates of power outages occurred in a swath extending from north Louisiana through north Mississippi, and into west Tennessee.
“Properties that experience an extended power outage are more susceptible to damage from cold temperatures, mainly caused by burst pipes.
“Additionally, some of the strongest cold temperature anomalies (largest temperature deviations from normal) of the event occurred in Texas. Austin, San Antonio, and Houston reached record low temperatures.”
In related news, Aon recently estimated that insured and economic losses from the ‘historic’ winter storm could top $1 billion, while earlier this month, BMS said Winter Storm Fern was expected to drive hundreds of millions in insured losses.
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