Zurich-based catastrophe insurance data provider PERILS has revised its industry loss estimate for the third time, confirming the total cost of the floods in southern Germany, which occurred between May 31st and June 6th, 2024, at €1,582 million.
To recap, southern Germany experienced severe flooding in the states of Baden-Wuerttemberg and Bavaria states caused by persistent heavy rainfall over the area, brought by a moisture-laden low from the Mediterranean Sea. This weather pattern is known as “Vb” and is often responsible for extreme rainfall and subsequent flooding in Central Europe.
This third estimate compares to the previous loss estimates of €1.568 million released in July 2024 and €1.590 million quoted in September 2024.
The new figure comprises personal lines property losses which represent 60% of the total industry loss, while the rest is lines property losses.
PERILS affirms that losses are concentrated in the states of Baden-Wuerttemberg and Bavaria, which together make up more than 95% of the total industry loss.
The estimate in the third report provides a breakdown of property losses by two-digit postal codes (low-resolution CRESTA Zones), and is further bifurcated by residential, commercial and industrial occupancy types, and loss amounts split into buildings, contents and business interruption.
Combining the PERILS industry exposure database for floods in Germany, available in identical resolution, the industry loss footprint provides new information on the vulnerability of insured property risks to flooding in Germany.
In line with the PERILS reporting schedule, a fourth update of the market loss from the Southern Germany Floods will be published on the 6th of June 2025, twelve months after the event end date.
It should be noted that the loss from the Southern Germany Floods is significant, however not unprecedented given that on an as-if-today basis it is exceeded by the Elbe Floods of August 2002, the Summer Floods of June 2013, and the Ahrtal (Bernd) Floods of July 2021, explained PERILS.
PERILS also warned that based on this 24-year history, flood event losses at the level of the most recent event can be expected to be reached or exceeded roughly once every five to six years in Germany.
Luzi Hitz, Product Manager at PERILS, commented, “In the areas impacted by the 2024 floods in southern Germany there was a significant variation in flood insurance levels. According to the German insurance association, only 47% of residential buildings in Bavaria have flood insurance, compared to 97% in Baden-Wuerttemberg.
“In both regions, however, the insurance industry managed the losses efficiently and effectively with limited disruption – and as Baden-Wuerttemberg demonstrates, establishing a very high level of flood insurance penetration is possible.
“The industry challenge it would seem is therefore not about enhancing the insurance product or securing more risk capital, but rather enticing more homeowners to buy flood protection.”
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