Credit ratings agency, Fitch Ratings, expects Winter Storm Fern to incur insured losses of between $4 billion and $7 billion, with primary insurers poised to absorb the event as while damaging, Fitch notes that it was not large enough to reinsurance attachment points.
Fern caused subfreezing temperatures, heavy snow, and freezing rain that affected large portions of the Midwest, South, and Eastern US in late January 2026.
Fitch emphasises that this event will be significant for the property and casualty insurance industry but will not trigger ratings downgrades of individual carriers.
Fern’s estimated losses are well below the record $18 billion of insured losses caused by Winter Storm Uri in 2021, and the $8 billion in insured losses for Winter Storm Elliott in 2022.
“Losses for the storm are expected to be absorbed by primary insurers as Fern was not large enough to hit reinsurance attachment points, with catastrophic losses expected to remain within industry expectations for 1Q26,” explained Fitch.
These expected losses for rated re/insurers will reduce near-term earnings, depending on exposure to claims from homeowners, auto, commercial property, and business interruption insurance and are unlikely to impact capital.
However, Fern will create significant insurance obligations in the aforementioned segments, leading to potentially higher premiums and stricter underwriting on weather risk, warns the rating agency.
“Certain insurers with product and geographic concentrations may be more impacted, with freeze expected to be the largest driver of insured losses. Damage and insurance losses from sub-freezing temperatures will be more significant in the southern and southeast states, particularly Texas and Tennessee, as these properties are generally not constructed to withstand sub-freezing temperatures and associated snow and freezing rain,” says Fitch.
Mainstream news reports have confirmed at least 140 fatalities, while over a million utility customers lost power. However, US public power systems largely avoided systemic power outages and material operational impacts, which helped mitigate insured losses. Fitch notes that regional grid operators and federal agencies took steps to preserve reliability, with overall grid reliability more robust than during Winter Storm Uri in 2021 and Winter Storm Elliot in 2022.
Earlier this week, Verisk estimated insured industry losses to property and auto from Winter Storm Fern to reach $4 billion, largely driven by freeze impacts, with supplemental losses from wind and snow.
Catastrophe risk modelling firm Karen Clark and Company (KCC) has estimated that the privately insured loss from Fern would be $6.7 billion.
Early estimates from Aon projected insured and economic losses from the same event to top $1 billion.
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