J.P. Morgan, a financial institution with analytical coverage of the insurance sector, characterises the approaching phase of the European P&C landscape as one led by softening property catastrophe reinsurance rates and a broader loss of pricing traction across major lines.
According to J.P. Morgan, the strong rate achievements of recent years have now given way to a period in which pricing is no longer a tailwind, and most P&C re/insurers will contend with a slower top-line environment through 2026.
While some companies may lean on accumulated reserve strength to offset part of the pressure, J.P. Morgan stresses that further margin expansion will be challenging.
In J.P. Morgan’s assessment, property catastrophe reinsurance pricing is set to decline materially in 2026, with reductions around 10–12% viewed as entirely plausible.
Ample capital entering the market and limited industry losses from the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season underpin this expectation. J.P. Morgan also underscores that disciplined terms, conditions, and stable attachment points should offer an important counterbalance, supporting underlying profitability even as headline rates ease.
The company further notes that commercial insurance, after more than five years of steady increases, has clearly moved into a softer phase. Data such as the Marsh index, which has recorded several quarters of small global price reductions, reinforce the bank’s view that 2026 will likely bring mid-single-digit declines, largely influenced by property business. J.P. Morgan points out that the US, still the anchor of the global commercial market, shows similar momentum.
Specialty lines are also adjusting. J.P. Morgan highlights that Lloyd’s carriers have already reported moderate decreases, with variation across classes.
Cyber, for example, continues to record lower prices despite an active claims backdrop. For 2026, J.P. Morgan expects US cyber pricing to settle at levels more consistent with current loss activity, while overall Specialty business experiences a mild softening similar to that seen in 2025.
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