Issued at 500 AM HST Fri Sep 05 2025
000 WTPZ41 KNHC 051446 CCA TCDEP1 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 22...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 500 AM HST Fri Sep 05 2025 Corrected Key Message for Kiko The satellite presentation of Kiko continues to slowly deteriorate early this morning, with the eye obscured by high clouds emanating from the coldest convective tops in the southeast quadrant. The most recent subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are T6.0/115 kt and T5.0/90 kt. Objective estimates, including ADT from UW-CIMSS, are a bit on the lower end of the spread between 90-100 knots. The intensity has been set at 100 kts as a blend of the subjective and objective intensity estimates. Kiko has made the expected turn to the west-northwest, or 285 degrees, at 8 kt. The western extent of a subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone is eroding by a developing upper-level low north of Hawaii. This general west-northwestward motion along with a gradual increase in forward speed is forecast into early next week, as Kiko moves along the southwest periphery of this subtropical ridge towards the upper-level low to the north and northwest of the Hawaiian Islands. The latest track forecast early on is very similar to the previous forecast, before being adjusted somewhat to the north from Monday onward as increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear leads to convective asymmetry which could induce a jog to the right. The track forecast is closest to the HCCA consensus. Kiko will remain over warm waters of 27–28C for the next 18 hours, while influenced by light northeasterly vertical wind shear, although the cyclone will remain in a drier than optimal mid-level environment keeping the storm size smaller than average. Despite the dry mid-level airmass Kiko will be moving through, the other factors still appear favorable for some slight intensification, so the latest intensity forecast still shows a little short-term strengthening. This forecast also fits in with the possibility for Kiko to develop annular characteristics which could keep it stronger than the forecast intensity guidance. Thereafter, Kiko will move over slightly cooler waters and an even drier mid-level environment. These less favorable conditions should begin a gradual weakening trend, in spite of the very light vertical wind shear. Waters below 26 C await Kiko's track after Monday, with west-southwesterly vertical wind shear increasing steadily to more than 30 kt by Wednesday, making it more likely the nearby dry air gets imported into Kiko's small core. The increasingly hostile environment should lead to rapid weakening of the tropical cyclone as it approaches the Hawaiian Islands from the east-southeast. The official intensity forecast has been lowered slightly from the previous advisory cycle, but remains on the higher end of the intensity aids through 48 hours. The intensity forecast then trends closer to the middle of the intensity consensus envelope by Monday, and then trends lower as Kiko should convectively sputter while moving very close to the eastern end of the Hawaiian Island chain as a weakening tropical storm. Key Messages: 1. Kiko is forecast to approach the Hawaiian Islands during the early to the middle portion of next week. Impacts from rain and wind remain a possibility, but it is too soon to determine the exact location or magnitude of these impacts, and interests there should continue to monitor the progress of this storm. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 14.2N 137.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 14.5N 138.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 15.0N 140.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 15.7N 142.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 16.4N 144.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 08/0000Z 17.5N 146.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 18.5N 148.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 09/1200Z 20.7N 152.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 10/1200Z 22.6N 157.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Roth/Papin
