Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Sep 26 2025
000 WTPZ44 KNHC 261436 TCDEP4 Hurricane Narda Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142025 800 AM PDT Fri Sep 26 2025 There has not been much change with Narda over the past several hours. The hurricane still has a central dense overcast pattern in satellite images, but there are some dry slots becoming apparent on the northwest side. The latest satellite intensity estimates have generally held steady, and the initial wind speed remains 80 kt using that data. Narda is moving west-northwestward at 13 kt over the open Pacific steered by a subtropical ridge to its north-northwest. This ridge should keep the hurricane on the same general path for about another day or so. After that time, a significant slow down and gradual turn to the north and northeast is forecast as the ridge breaks down due to a series of troughs to its north. The models are in fair agreement, and only small changes were made to the previous track forecast. The hurricane will likely maintain its strength a little longer, but weakening should begin on Saturday when Narda is forecast to cross the 26 C SST isotherm. Progressively cooler water and drier air should cause the system to fall below hurricane strength this weekend and decay to a post-tropical cyclone in a few days. The models are in good agreement, and this forecast is a touch lower than the previous one, trending toward the latest consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 16.9N 121.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 17.3N 123.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 17.9N 125.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 18.6N 126.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 19.6N 127.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 29/0000Z 20.7N 127.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 29/1200Z 21.4N 126.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 30/1200Z 21.9N 126.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/1200Z 22.8N 126.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
