Issued at 800 AM MST Mon Oct 06 2025
000 WTPZ41 KNHC 061454 TCDEP1 Hurricane Priscilla Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162025 800 AM MST Mon Oct 06 2025 Priscilla remains a large hurricane with a fairly large radius of maximum winds (RMW). The ASCAT data from late Sunday evening suggested that the winds may have been a bit lower than the subjective Dvorak estimates at that time. Although the curved band that extends across the eastern and southern semicircles has become a bit more impressive over the past few hours, the convection in the northwest quadrant is still not very strong. The inner core is still rather broad, and it does not appear that the RMW has contracted yet. The latest subjective Dvorak estimates remain a consensus 77 kt from TAFB and SAB, and the intensity will be held at 75 kt for this advisory. Priscilla is still moving slowly toward the north-northwest, or 340 degrees at 4 kt. A more northwestward track with some acceleration is expected by later today as mid-level ridging becomes better established over Mexico. The model guidance hasn't changed too much this cycle, and the NHC forecast is very similar to the previous official forecast. The NHC forecast is close to the latest Google DeepMind Ensemble Mean. Although the SHIPS guidance is forecasting moderate wind shear to continue through the next 48 h, the large circulation of Priscilla should be able to fight off some of the adverse affects of the shear. Priscilla will be moving over very warm waters for the next couple of days and the environment looks to be quite conducive for strengthening. The rate of intensification for the next 24 h will likely be slow to steady since Priscilla has yet to develop a tight inner core. Only minor changes were made to the previous official forecast, which shows a peak intensity as a strong Category 2 around Tuesday evening, which is near the higher end of the intensity guidance suite. Steady to rapid weakening is likely to commence in 2-3 days due to the tropical cyclone reaching sharply cooler waters. Based on the latest forecast, which brings the tropical-storm-force wind radii fairly close to portions of Baja California Sur in 36-48 h, the government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm watch from Cabo San Lucas to Santa Fe. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico today, and in Baja California Sur Tuesday night into Wednesday, within the watch areas. Interests elsewhere in the southern portion of Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Priscilla. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with Priscilla will impact coastal sections of southwestern Mexico as well as portions of Baja California Sur, which could result in flash flooding, particularly in areas of higher terrain. 3. Swells generated by Priscilla are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico and will reach the coasts of the southern Baja California peninsula today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 17.5N 107.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 18.3N 108.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 19.3N 109.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 20.2N 110.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 21.2N 112.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 09/0000Z 22.3N 113.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 23.4N 114.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 10/1200Z 25.7N 115.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 11/1200Z 27.5N 115.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Hagen
