Issued at 1100 AM MST Mon Oct 06 2025
000 WTPZ31 KNHC 061745 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Priscilla Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162025 1100 AM MST Mon Oct 06 2025 ...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS LIKELY TODAY OVER PARTS OF COASTAL SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM MST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 107.6W ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Punta Mita, Mexico * Baja California Sur from Cabo San Lucas to Santa Fe A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in southern Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Priscilla. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM MST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Priscilla was located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 107.6 West. Priscilla is moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). This general motion with a bend to the northwest at a slightly faster forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of the system is expected to move offshore of and parallel to the coast of west-central Mexico and Baja California Sur through the early-to-middle part of this week. Maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Priscilla is expected to become a category 2 hurricane, and could approach major hurricane status within the next couple of days before weakening likely commences by midweek. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Priscilla can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area along the southwestern coast of Mexico today, and are possible in Baja California Sur Tuesday night into Wednesday. RAINFALL: Outer bands from Priscilla will continue to bring heavy rain to portions of southwestern Mexico today. Across coastal portions of Michoacán and Colima, additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected. From Tuesday into Wednesday, 2-4 inches (with local amounts up to 6 inches) are expected in southern portions of Baja California Sur as outer bands of Priscilla reach that area. This rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding, especially in areas of higher terrain. Moisture from Priscilla should bring heavy rainfall potential over the Southwestern U.S. late this week into this weekend. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Priscilla, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Priscilla are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico, and will reach portions of the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Hagen
