NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 301708

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun May 30 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.


The axis of a tropical wave is near 38W, from 15N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. No significant convection is
observed near this tropical wave.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 53W, from 15N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 05N to 09N between 51W and 59W.


The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea
near 10N14W to 03N30W. Segments of the ITCZ continue from 03N30W
to 04N37W, and from 04N40W to 06N52W. Aside from convection
mentioned in the tropical wave section, there is scattered
moderate convection from 02N to 07N between 10W and 20W.


A weakening cold front extends from near Tampa, Florida to near
Houston, Texas. Moderate NE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are noted
north of this front. Moderate E winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are
evident over the southwest Gulf, with light to gentle breezes and
1 to 3 ft are noted elsewhere. More stable air over the western
Gulf follows an upper trough reaching from the Florida Panhandle
to the southwest Gulf. This is limiting and significant shower or
thunderstorm activity, except for a few modest showers over the
central Gulf where upper trough intersects warmer waters near the
loop current.

For the forecast, the eastern portion of the front will drift SE
and stall along 27N tonight. Moderate north to northeast winds
will prevail behind the front through early afternoon. Fresh
northeast to east winds will pulse to strong each night off the
Yucatan Peninsula. High pressure north of the basin will prevail
Mon through Wed.


Weak surface troughs are noted over the Leeward Islands and from
eastern Cuba through the southern Bahamas. Despite a strong
Bermuda High farther north, this pattern is supporting only moderate
to fresh trade winds and 4 to 6 ft seas across the Caribbean basin
and 4 to 6 ft seas and over the Gulf of Honduras, except for
gentle to moderate SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas in the northwest
Caribbean. A few showers are noted off Costa Rica due to trade
wind convergence. Elsewhere, no significant shower or
thunderstorm activity is evident.

For the forecast, fresh trades across the south central Caribbean
will expand slightly northward tonight through Tue as high
pressure strengthens modestly across the western Atlc. Fresh winds
are expected in the southern Gulf of Honduras tonight. Moderate
to fresh tradewinds will prevail basin-wide late Tue through Thu
as the Atlc ridge lifts northward along 35N.


A weakening cold front extends from 1014 mb low pressure east of
Savannah, Georgia to just north of Cape Canaveral, Florida. 1033
mb high pressure over the central Atlantic near 36N40W, dominates
the basin. Pressure data hints a weak surface trough may be moving
through eastern Cuba and the southern Bahamas, although a
concurrent scatterometer satellite pass shows little evidence of a
pronounced trough in this area, so it is weak if it exists at
all. A negatively tilted upper trough is noted from 30N70W to
25N63W, supporting a few showers from 25N to 30N between 60W and
65W. At the surface, gentle to moderate E to SE winds are evident
across the region west of 60W, except for fresh S to SW winds just
ahead of the front, with 3 to 5 ft seas in open waters. Farther
south, fresh NE to E winds and 8 to 9 ft seas are noted near the
tropical wave off French Guiana. In the eastern Atlantic, fresh
NE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are noted west of the Canary Islands.
Moderate NE to E winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 65W, the cold front off the coast of
north Florida will shift slightly southeastward today before
stalling tonight. High pressure will build gradually westward into
the region late Mon through Wed.


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