Issued at 500 AM HST Mon Aug 04 2025
268 WTPZ43 KNHC 041432 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082025 500 AM HST Mon Aug 04 2025 Satellite imagery since the previous advisory shows little overall structural change in Tropical Depression Eight-E. The system continues to produce mainly fragmented convective bands, with a few intermittent bursts of deeper convection over the low-level circulation center. The overall organization has not appreciably improved, and the most recent subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB remain at 2.0/30 kt. Given these data and the satellite presentation, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest, or 295/13 kt, along the southern side of a strong subtropical ridge. This ridge is expected to persist through much of the forecast period, steering the system generally west-northwestward for the next several days. A slightly more northwestward motion is possible by day 5 as it moves into the Central Pacific basin and responds to a weakness in the ridge far north of Hawaii. The latest NHC track forecast is very close to the previous one and remains close to the consensus aids. The system is forecast to steadily strengthen during the next couple of days as it moves over warm waters and through a moist, low-shear environment. It is expected to become a tropical storm by tonight and could approach hurricane strength between 36 and 60 hours. After that time, a gradual weakening trend is anticipated as the cyclone moves over sea surface temperatures below 26 degrees C and begins to entrain drier mid-level air within a more stable environment. Despite these less favorable conditions, much of the guidance maintains a well-defined cyclone with deep convection through the 120-hour forecast period, with only gradual weakening. The official forecast remains slightly above the intensity guidance through midweek, then more gradually trends back toward the consensus aids thereafter. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 14.2N 119.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 14.9N 121.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 15.9N 124.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 16.8N 126.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 17.7N 129.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 07/0000Z 18.4N 132.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 18.9N 135.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 08/1200Z 20.0N 141.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 09/1200Z 21.7N 147.2W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)
