Issued at 800 AM MST Wed Nov 06 2024
000 WTPZ44 KNHC 061453 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142024 800 AM MST Wed Nov 06 2024 The National Hurricane Center has been tracking a well-defined low pressure system located several hundred miles southwest of the southwestern Mexican coast. Beginning around 2300 UTC on Tuesday, deep convection formed over the low-level circulation and cold cloud tops have persisted for over 15 hours. TAFB has classified this system with a T2.0, indicating that is has reached the necessary requirements of maintaining deep, organized convection. Therefore, the system is being designated as Tropical Depression Fourteen-E and the initial intensity is set to 30 kt. Scatterometer data is expected later today which should provide a better intensity estimate. The depression is drifting northeastward at 3 kt. A narrow mid-level ridge is building to the north of the cyclone and expected to turn the depression eastward later today. The system should briefly accelerate and turn more east-southeastward to southeastward on Thursday before drifting back to the east-southeast on Friday in the low-level flow. The NHC track forecast lies between the simple and corrected consensus aids. Surrounding dry mid-level humidities and moderate vertical wind shear seem to be the limiting factors preventing the depression from any significant strengthening. Global models indicate there should be a brief period in about day or so that the deep-layer vertical wind shear should relax slightly and possibly allow for a little strengthening. The depression is expected to lose its organized deep convection over the weekend and open into a trough. However, there is a possibility this occurs sooner. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 13.1N 106.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 13.1N 105.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 12.5N 104.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 11.3N 103.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 10.6N 103.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 09/0000Z 10.2N 102.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 10.1N 102.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci
