Issued at 1100 AM MST Sat Oct 11 2025
000 WTPZ32 KNHC 111743 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Raymond Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172025 1100 AM MST Sat Oct 11 2025 ...RAYMOND WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION... ...ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS DISCONTINUED... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM MST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.7N 109.6W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued all Tropical Storm Warnings. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM MST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Raymond was located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 109.6 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected later today, with this motion then continuing through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Raymond is expected to move over the southern portion of Baja California Sur later today. Recent satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, with Raymond expected to become a post-tropical remnant low tonight or Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Raymond can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC. RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches with local amounts of 8 or more inches are expected across northwestern Sinaloa, Sonora and northern Chihuahua. This rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding, especially in areas of higher terrain. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches are expected across central Sinaloa, the southern portions of Baja California Sur and across the far southeast portion of Baja California and far northeast Baja California Sur. Moisture from Raymond will also bring the potential for additional heavy rainfall over portions of the Southwest U.S. Sunday into early next week. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Raymond, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Raymond are affecting the coasts of southwest and west-central Mexico, and southern Baja California Sur. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Kelly
