Issued at 1500 UTC THU MAY 29 2025
470 WTPZ21 KNHC 291432 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012025 1500 UTC THU MAY 29 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 106.3W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 4 M SEAS.... 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 106.3W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 106.0W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 14.7N 107.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 16.1N 108.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 17.6N 108.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 19.1N 108.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 20.7N 108.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 21.9N 108.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 106.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z $$ FORECASTER MORA/CANGIALOSI
