Issued at 800 AM MST Tue Jun 10 2025
000 WTPZ42 KNHC 101452 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Barbara Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022025 800 AM MST Tue Jun 10 2025 Conventional satellite imagery and a recent microwave overpass indicate that Barbara's surface circulation has become exposed to the north of the convective mass. Subsequently, northerly shear appears to be undercutting the outflow aloft. A burst of cold cloud tops of -76 C developed just south of the center overnight. Recent images, however, show the cloud tops have warmed significantly while the cyclone traverses over a sharp temperature gradient of SSTs less than 24 C. The subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates range from 40 to 65 kt, and as a compromise, the initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt for this advisory. Further weakening is expected through the period as the system continues to move over cooler water and into a more stable and dry surrounding environment. The official intensity forecast shows Barbara degenerating to a remnant low in 24 hr and dissipating by Wednesday night. The NHC intensity forecast is based on the global models and the IVCN intensity consensus model, and is essentially an update of the previous forecast. Based on the aforementioned microwave pass, Barbara has been moving a little to the right and a bit faster than the previous forecast, and is now moving northwestward, or 315/8 kt. Barbara should continue moving toward the northwest through dissipation on Wednesday. The official track forecast lies between the skilled HCCA and TVCE consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 19.9N 108.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 20.8N 109.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 21.3N 110.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
